polymarket-btc15m – OpenClaw Skill

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name: polymarket-btc15m description: Trade Polymarket Bitcoin Up/Down 15-minute markets using TA signals. Supports Clawbot mode (dynamic sizing, TP/SL, pre-settlement) or fixed mode. Use when checking signals, placing trades, or automating via private key.

Polymarket BTC 15m Trading Skill

Clawbot manages Polymarket BTC 15m trades using signals from PolymarketBTC15mAssistant.

Modes

Mode	Toggle	Position size	Take-profit	Stop-loss	Pre-settlement sell
Clawbot	CLAWBOT_MODE=true	Dynamic from balance & risk	Yes	Yes	Yes
Fixed	CLAWBOT_MODE=false (default)	Fixed (ORDER_SIZE)	No	No	No

Clawbot mode logic

• High risk (late phase, low edge): small % of balance (2–3%), tighter SL
• Strong signal (STRONG, high edge): larger % (up to 15%), wider TP
• Reserve: always keeps 20% of balance
• Max per trade: never more than 30% of balance

Environment Variables

Variable	Required	Description
POLYMARKET_PRIVATE_KEY	Yes (trading)	Wallet private key
POLYMARKET_FUNDER	Yes (trading)	Funder from polymarket.com/settings
CLAWBOT_MODE	No	true or false (default)
POLYMARKET_ORDER_SIZE	No	Shares when Clawbot OFF (default: 5)
POLYMARKET_SIGNATURE_TYPE	No	0/1/2 (default: 2)

Commands

Get signal

npm run signal

With CLAWBOT_MODE=true, output includes clawbotParams (balance, size, TP%, SL%, sellBeforeMin).

Execute trade

npm run trade:up
npm run trade:down
node src/trade-cli.js --execute=UP --yes

Position monitor (Clawbot mode only)

One cycle:

node src/trade-cli.js --monitor

Background daemon (runs until Ctrl+C):

npm run monitor

Workflow for Clawbot

1. "What's the signal?"

   • Run npm run signal
   • Summarize: action, side, phase, strength, model probs, time left
   • If Clawbot mode: include clawbotParams (balance, suggested size, TP/SL)

2. "Place trade for UP"

   • Run npm run signal → verify ENTER + side UP
   • If match: npm run trade:up (or --execute=UP --yes if approved)
   • If mismatch: abort and explain

3. "Enable/disable Clawbot mode"

   • Set CLAWBOT_MODE=true or false in .env
   • Explain: Clawbot = dynamic sizing + auto TP/SL; Fixed = manual only

4. "Run monitor" (when Clawbot mode + open positions)

   • Run npm run monitor in background, or node src/trade-cli.js --monitor for one cycle

Safety

• No system guarantees profits. Clawbot improves edge but does not eliminate risk.
• Prefer user confirmation for trades unless automation is explicitly approved.
• Never log or expose POLYMARKET_PRIVATE_KEY.

Installation

cp -r clawbot-skill ~/.clawbot/skills/polymarket-btc15m
# or
ln -s /path/to/PolymarketBTC15mAssistant-main ~/.clawbot/skills/polymarket-btc15m

Ensure execution engine allows npm and node from the project directory.

Polymarket BTC 15m Assistant

A real-time trading assistant for Polymarket "Bitcoin Up or Down" 15-minute markets. It combines technical analysis, live price feeds, and market data to generate BUY UP / BUY DOWN signals, with optional automated trading via private key wallet.

Features

• Live price feeds: Polymarket WebSocket (Chainlink BTC/USD), on-chain Chainlink (Polygon), Binance spot
• Technical analysis: Heiken Ashi, RSI, MACD, VWAP, 1m/3m delta
• Signal engine: Computes model probabilities (LONG/SHORT %), edge vs market prices, and ENTER/NO_TRADE recommendations
• Trading: Place orders on Polymarket via CLOB API using your wallet private key
• Clawbot integration: AI-driven position sizing, take-profit, stop-loss, and pre-settlement sell when CLAWBOT_MODE=true

Requirements

• Node.js 18+
• npm

Installation

git clone <repository-url>
cd PolymarketBTC15mAssistant-main
npm install

Configuration

Copy the example env file and set your credentials:

# Windows
copy .env.example .env

# Linux / macOS
cp .env.example .env

Edit .env:

Variable	Required	Description
POLYMARKET_PRIVATE_KEY	Yes (for trading)	Wallet private key (export from MetaMask or polymarket.com)
POLYMARKET_FUNDER	Yes (for trading)	Funder address from polymarket.com/settings
POLYMARKET_SIGNATURE_TYPE	No	0=EOA, 1=Magic/Email, 2=Gnosis Safe (default: 2)
POLYMARKET_ORDER_SIZE	No	Shares per order when not using Clawbot mode (default: 5)
POLYMARKET_ORDER_SIZE_USD	No	Max USD per order (overrides ORDER_SIZE)
CLAWBOT_MODE	No	true = AI-driven sizing + TP/SL; false = fixed size, no auto-sell (default)
POLYMARKET_SLUG	No	Pin a specific market slug (leave empty for auto-select)
POLYGON_RPC_URL	No	Polygon RPC for Chainlink fallback (default: polygon-rpc.com)
HTTPS_PROXY	No	HTTP(S) proxy for requests

Commands

npm start

Runs the live console dashboard. Displays:

• Current Polymarket BTC 15m market
• Time left until settlement
• TA indicators (Heiken Ashi, RSI, MACD, VWAP, Delta)
• Model probabilities (LONG/SHORT %)
• Polymarket UP/DOWN prices and liquidity
• Chainlink current price vs price-to-beat
• Signal: BUY UP, BUY DOWN, or NO TRADE

Updates every second. Press Ctrl+C to stop.

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npm run signal

Fetches the current signal once and outputs JSON. Use for scripts or Clawbot.

Output fields:

• action: ENTER or NO_TRADE
• side: UP or DOWN (when ENTER)
• phase: EARLY, MID, or LATE
• strength: STRONG, GOOD, or OPTIONAL
• modelUp, modelDown: Model probabilities (0–1)
• marketUp, marketDown: Market prices
• edgeUp, edgeDown: Edge vs market
• timeLeftMin: Minutes until settlement
• btcPrice: Current BTC price
• marketSnapshot: Market metadata, token IDs, orderbook

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npm run trade

Trade CLI. Supports:

Subcommand	Description
--signal	Same as npm run signal (JSON output)
--execute=UP	Place BUY UP order (with confirmation)
--execute=DOWN	Place BUY DOWN order (with confirmation)
--execute=UP --yes	Place BUY UP without confirmation

Examples:

npm run trade -- --signal
npm run trade -- --execute=UP
npm run trade -- --execute=DOWN --yes

Behavior:

• Verifies current signal is ENTER and matches requested side
• Prompts for confirmation unless --yes
• Uses POLYMARKET_ORDER_SIZE or POLYMARKET_ORDER_SIZE_USD for size

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npm run trade:up / npm run trade:down

Shortcuts for --execute=UP and --execute=DOWN (with confirmation).

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npm run context

Builds Clawbot context JSON. Use when CLAWBOT_MODE=true so the AI can decide trade parameters.

Output:

• signal: Action, side, phase, strength, edge, model/market prices
• balance: USDCe balance
• riskAssessment: Risk level (LOW/MEDIUM/HIGH) and reason
• suggestedParams: Suggested sizeUsd, takeProfitPct, stopLossPct, preSettlementMin
• marketSnapshot: Market data for order placement

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npm run clawbot-execute

Executes a trade with Clawbot-provided parameters. Requires CLAWBOT_MODE=true.

Input (stdin or --params=):

{
  "side": "UP",
  "sizeUsd": 10,
  "takeProfitPct": 20,
  "stopLossPct": 12,
  "preSettlementMin": 3
}

Examples:

echo '{"side":"UP","sizeUsd":10,"takeProfitPct":20,"stopLossPct":12,"preSettlementMin":3}' | npm run clawbot-execute
npm run clawbot-execute -- --params='{"side":"DOWN","sizeUsd":5}'

Behavior:

• Verifies signal matches requested side
• Places order with given sizeUsd
• Saves position for TP/SL tracking
• Starts position monitor in background

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npm run monitor

Runs the position monitor daemon. Checks open positions every 5 seconds and:

• Take-profit: Sells when profit reaches takeProfitPct
• Stop-loss: Sells when loss reaches stopLossPct
• Pre-settlement: Sells when time left ≤ preSettlementMin

Runs until Ctrl+C. Requires CLAWBOT_MODE=true and positions created via clawbot-execute.

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How It Works

Signal Logic

1. Data: Fetches 1m/5m candles from Binance, Chainlink BTC/USD (Polymarket WS or Polygon), and Polymarket market snapshot.
2. Indicators: Computes VWAP, RSI, MACD, Heiken Ashi, 1m/3m delta.
3. Scoring: Combines indicators into LONG/SHORT probabilities with time-aware adjustment.
4. Edge: Compares model probabilities to Polymarket prices.
5. Decision: ENTER when edge exceeds phase-dependent threshold and model probability is high enough.

Trading Modes

Mode	Toggle	Size	Take-profit	Stop-loss	Pre-settlement
Fixed	CLAWBOT_MODE=false	POLYMARKET_ORDER_SIZE or ORDER_SIZE_USD	No	No	No
Clawbot	CLAWBOT_MODE=true	AI-chosen via context + clawbot-execute	Yes	Yes	Yes

Clawbot Flow

1. Run npm run context → AI receives signal, balance, risk, suggested params.
2. AI returns params (or uses suggested): side, sizeUsd, takeProfitPct, stopLossPct, preSettlementMin.
3. Run clawbot-execute with those params → order placed, position stored.
4. Run npm run monitor → monitors positions and sells on TP/SL/pre-settlement.

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Proxy Support

Set standard env vars:

• HTTPS_PROXY / https_proxy
• HTTP_PROXY / http_proxy
• ALL_PROXY / all_proxy

Example:

export HTTPS_PROXY=http://127.0.0.1:8080

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Logs

• ./logs/signals.csv — Signal history (timestamp, regime, signal, model/market prices, recommendation)
• ./logs/positions.json — Open positions for TP/SL (Clawbot mode)

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